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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.